The Market Isn’t Broken. Your Expectations Are.

There’s a lot of waiting happening in real estate right now, waiting for rates to drop or for a crash to reset the board…or somewhere in the middle. I don’t believe we will see a large drop in rates, or any sort of crash coming. In this newsletter, I’ll explain why, own a few mistakes I’ve made along the way, and lay out how I’m approaching deals in the market we actually have.  I am gearing up and taking action TODAY, and I share my thought process below.

Once again, I personally write these.

The Market Isn’t Broken. Your Expectations Are.

I keep hearing the same thing from investors lately.

“The market is broken.”

“I’m just waiting for rates to come down.” 

or

“I’m holding out for a real crash like 2008.”

I don’t think the market is broken.

I think expectations are.

A lot of frustration I’m seeing right now isn’t because there’s no opportunity. It’s because many people are still operating with assumptions that were formed in a very abnormal market, and they’re hoping that market comes back to clean up decisions that didn’t quite work out.

I want to be very clear about where I stand on this.

I do not believe rates are going to drop enough this year to turn this back into a seller’s market and bail people out of deals they shouldn’t have bought.

I also do not believe we are getting a 2008-style crash in 2026. I don’t see a realistic path for either of those things to happen. No chance. That might not be what people want to hear, but it is what I actually believe.

Let Me Start With Myself:

Before this turns into finger-pointing, I’ll go first. I made mistakes too.

In 2024 and early 2025, I bought deals thinking we were closer to the bottom than we really were. I thought we were there. We weren’t. We still had more to go.

I bought a property here in Austin where the ARV at the time was around $1.2M. Two weeks ago, I sold that same property for $1M...that sucked.

That’s real money. That’s the real cost of education.

So if you’re sitting on something right now and feeling uncomfortable, you’re not alone. This market has been humbling across the board. But humility is not the same thing as denial, and that’s where I see people getting stuck.

The Two Hopes I Keep Hearing:

Most investors I talk to right now are quietly holding onto one of two hopes.

1. The first is that rates drop fast enough that the market flips back into a strong seller’s market and they can exit mistakes without much damage.

2. The second is that things “crash harder,” something closer to 2008, so everything resets and opportunity becomes obvious again.

I don’t think either of those is coming.

Not because I’m an optimist. Not because I’m bearish. But because structurally, this market is very different from what people are comparing it to.

Why This Is Not 2008 (Structurally)

2008 required a very specific set of ingredients.

• Loose lending

• No-doc loans

• Speculation layered on top of speculation

• Mass forced selling (oversupply)

• A banking system that was not prepared for what it had created

• And a bunch of other stuff too

That’s not what we have today.

Lending standards are tighter. Most homeowners are locked into low fixed-rate debt. Supply is constrained in many markets. And while there is pain, it’s uneven and slow, not systemic and sudden.

This is not a market where everyone is forced to sell at once. It’s a market where weak deals get exposed over time, and strong operators survive by adapting.

That distinction matters.

What broke wasn’t the market. What broke were expectations.

Expectations that:

• Cheap money would be permanent

• Appreciation would cover operational mistakes

• Time would fix bad buys

• Speed mattered more than structure

Those weren’t skills. Those were conditions. And conditions change.

This version of the market rewards different behavior. It rewards patience. Discipline. Operations. Margin. Flexibility. It punishes nostalgia and waiting.

Waiting for rescue is not a strategy…

What I’m Doing Now:

I’m not sitting on the sidelines. I’m buying in my market. But I’m buying very differently.

I’ve tightened my buy box significantly. I’m only looking at deals with multiple exit strategies. I want the option to keep, refinance, rent, or sell, and I want those options baked in from day one, not hoped for later.

I’m trying to keep as much as I can, but I’m structuring deals in a way that allows me to dump them if I have to. Optionality matters more now than it ever has. Never lost money on a deal I did not buy.

Most importantly, I’m leaning into what I actually control.

Operations. Construction. Execution.

I want to force appreciation because of what WE do, not what the market does. If I’m thinking long term, and I can survive the short term, then I don’t just survive this cycle, I thrive in it, and I probably look pretty smart five years from now.

Not because I timed anything perfectly, but because I adapted.

The Business Is Easier When You’re Not Alone

One last thing I’ll say.

This business is way less stressful when you’re surrounded by people who are actually in it. 

People who have made mistakes, are making mistakes, and are learning in real time, not people waiting for a market they wish would come back.

That’s why community matters. That’s why conversations like this matter.

And that’s exactly why events like the REI Summit (Austin, 1–3) exist. The goal isn’t to teach you how to win in the market you hope for. It’s to help you operate intelligently in the market we’re actually in.

Because hoping for rescue isn’t a plan. Adapting is.

See you in April!

Tarl Yarber

PS: www.REIsummit2026.com ticket prices increase again at the end of this week. Take a look at what the event has to offer.  More big announcements are coming soon. Get tickets before prices go up. Use TARL10 for an extra 10% off