Recovering Flipper Update: My 2025 - 2026 Playbook

Author

Tarl Yarber
October 21, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

Inside the Trenches

I haven’t sent a newsletter in a while because I’ve had my head down in the real business. If you’re hoping rates drop, prices rip, and flippers can start weighing money again…this update is for you. (As a reminder, I actually write these personally…which is probably why I don’t send them out as much as I need to, I will get better…)

Quick reminder: I’m a Recovering House Flipper. I’ve flipped a ton. I made a lot of income, but I didn’t build real wealth until I started keeping properties. Lately that’s been clearer than ever.

Over the last 18 months I’ve been steadily buying in a couple of markets, mostly BRRRR deals with a few flips sprinkled in. The BRRRRs did what I wanted, nothing flashy, just steady, long-term plays. The flips? In this market…they’ve been a pain.

A soft appraisal (low) on a BRRRR means I leave more money in the deal, but I still own a rental for years so leaving money in the deal is tolerable if needed. A flip that sits, gets price cuts, and runs over budget? That money is gone. Anyone else have a few “museum pieces” on the MLS right now, or is it just me? :)

So what’s the move? I’m buying more, smarter. A lot of the stale inventory I’m carrying came from earlier optimism and I am paying for it now. Today, with the market flatter, I can price better, get choosier, and sharpen the pencil.

There’s a Tim Ferriss line I love (paraphrased): “You don’t have to make the money back the same way you lost it.” I can’t undo past buys or the rehab, and I can’t change the market. I can go make better money on new, smarter deals.

The Market (Rest of 2025 into 2026)

My base case: single-family stays roughly flat. I don’t expect massive rate cuts, maybe small adjustments. Big cuts would likely mean a worse economy and more investor competition. I’m not rooting for that at all.

Real estate is supposed to be hard. The last cycle (2021) trained people to go over budget and still win because appreciation bailed them out. That’s not normal, and it shouldn’t be.

Affordability is the long-term constraint for most of the US middle income. A flat market gives wages time to catch up. It also shakes out weak hands, which makes it easier to buy quality for the long run.

If real estate keeps going up like it did in 2021, we would expedite the demise of the middle class, there would be an even BIGGER gap between the haves and have not…which is not good for anyone in my opinion for many many reasons.

Long term, real estate is still good to go. Short term, flips can bite. I’ll still do them (hey, I’m recovering, not retired), but my buy box changed.

What I’m Doing Now (and Next Few Years)

  1. Raising the bar on margins: I used to buy flips at 15% project cash-on-cash if the geography worked. No more. I’ve increased required margins to mitigate risk.

  2. Multiple exit strategies or no deal. If I can’t pivot, I pass. I’m asking on every property:

    1. Can we add a DADU/ADU?

    2. Can we split the lot?

    3. Long-term rental pencil?

    4. Co-living viable?

    5. Mid-term rental options?

    6. Can we expand or add on?

    7. What else works if we don’t flip it?

  3. More choosy, more volume at the top of the funnel.  Yes, I’ll pass on more. That means I need to look at a lot more. I’m also open to adding markets where the numbers and teams make sense.

  4. Keep stacking BRRRRs.  Boring works. Appreciation is a bonus; cash flow and amortization are the plan.

Operating Rules I’m Following today

  • Underwrite for flat pricing and conservative rent growth.

  • Stress test debt at today’s rates, treat any future cut as gravy.

  • Bake in contingencies on rehab and timeline.

  • Buy only with multiple exits and true downside protection.

  • Prefer deals I’d be happy to own if I misjudge the flip.

Bottom line: I believe future me will regret not buying now, as long as I buy with discipline.

Want to Work With Me?

I’m expanding the team. I’m hiring a Real Estate Acquisitions Apprentice & Lead Manager to work directly with me. This is a fast-paced, relationship-driven role (not a boiler-room sales gig). If that’s you, or someone you know, details here:

Once again, yes, I personally write these…and will get more consistent writing again soon.

Tarl Yarber

Recovering House Flipper

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