Am I Being Disciplined or Just Scared?

I Am Looking at a Flip Right Now…

…And I feel like an addict staring at a drink.

On paper, it works:

• The purchase price is $290,000.

• The rehab is about $65,000 if we keep it tight and simple.

• ARV around $450,000 based on the current comps.

It’s a clean house. The rehab isn’t complicated for us. We’ve done this exact type of project many times before. Operationally, it fits our wheelhouse.

There is also the “go bigger” option: take the rehab to $100,000 and try to push it north of $500,000.

But that ARV starts getting fuzzy. The comps thin out. The confidence drops. That version feels more speculative.

The honest issue isn’t whether it can make money. It probably can.

The issue is that it only makes sense as a flip.

There is no strong long-term rental play at this basis. The rent doesn’t justify the all-in cost. It’s not a clear buy-and-hold. It’s not a development angle. It’s not an obvious multi-exit property. If I buy this, I am committing to one exit strategy in a market that still feels uncertain.

That’s what is bothering me.

Last year I had flips sit. I had to drop prices. I went over budget on a few. I lost money on some deals in Savannah that, at the time I bought them, felt completely reasonable. Nothing catastrophic. Just compression. Just friction. Just the market not caring about my spreadsheet.

Scar tissue changes how you look at a deal…

• The addict in me says, “It works. Take the win. Stack some income. Use the profit for future buy-and-holds.”

• The operator in me says, “Why are you stepping into a one-exit strategy in a market where you already got burned?”

The rehab on this one is simple. That’s part of the seduction. No major structural issues. No wild surprises expected. Just execution. And if we execute well, we probably make money.

But I keep asking myself a different question now than I used to:

If this sells slower than expected, what is my Plan B?

And right now, there isn’t a great one.

I believe there will be more competition this spring and summer. Inventory tends to increase. Buyers have more choices. Margins compress quietly, not dramatically. It doesn’t feel like a crash environment. It feels like a grind environment. And grind environments punish single-exit deals.

Five years ago, I would not hesitate. Ten years ago, I wouldn’t even think twice.

Today, I’m debating whether to release earnest money.

That’s growth, or fear, depending on how you look at it.

Part of me wants the income. I’d love another clean flip profit that I can roll into long-term holds. Income still matters. It creates opportunity. But income by itself is not wealth. I learned that lesson the hard way flipping hundreds of houses.

A flip that works is not automatically a deal that moves you forward.

That’s the shift I’m wrestling with:

• If I buy it, it will be because I am comfortable with the risk of having only one exit.

• If I walk, it will be because discipline sometimes means passing on something that “works.”

I don’t have a dramatic answer for you here. I’m in it right now. I may wire funds. I may release earnest money. But I can tell you this: the filter is different than it used to be, and I’m grateful for that.

If you’re sitting on a similar deal right now, ask yourself one uncomfortable question:

Are you buying it because it’s strategic… or because you need the action?

There’s a difference.

— Tarl Yarber

PS: Speaking of being in the trenches, this exact type of conversation is what we’re diving into at REI Summit this year with Brandon Turner and me. We’re not talking theory. We’re breaking down what’s actually working in this market, what’s compressing, where investors are getting caught, and how to structure deals with more than one way out. If you’re serious about sharpening your decision-making in this cycle, you should be in the room. You can check out details at www.REISummit2026.com and use code Tarl10 for a discount.

PSS: Need funding?

We’re actively lending on disciplined single-family deals. If the numbers make sense and the structure protects the downside, we move fast.